EKITI ELECTIONS: WHY FAYEMI LOST AND THE LESSON FOR APC- Bayo Adeyinka

Most APC die-hard supporters could not believe there
would be an upset. But the handwriting became clearer on
the wall when it was obvious that Bimbo Daramola, Yemi
Adaramodu, Adewale Omirin, the Deputy Governor Prof
Mrs Adelabu and former Governor Niyi Adebayo all lost
their wards/booths. From results, out of the 12 wards in
Oye Local Government, Governor Kayode Fayemi's Local
Government, APC won only 2 wards while PDP cleared the
rest. Fayose won in all the Local Governments in Ekiti
State, scoring over 203,090 votes to Fayemi's 120,433.
The defeat was total and absolute.
It was one defeat that leaves your jaws open and makes
you wonder what went wrong. Fortunately or
unfortunately, depending on the side you are, the election
was free and fair. Though it took place under a massive
security arrangement, there was no report of
disenfranchisement whatsoever. The turnout was massive
and it was reported that some polling booths witnessed
close to 80% turnout of registered voters. People travelled
from Lagos and other states just to vote in Ekiti. I
personally know people who went to their Ekiti home state
just to register their feelings with their votes. After voting,
people stayed and ensured the votes were counted. One
account had it that an old woman asked a citizen
journalist to write Fayose's results on her palm.
Some people attributed Peter Ayodele Fayose's victory to
the sharing of rice and other inducements but this is
begging the question because APC also shared rice and
even doled out money. Those who were on ground
confirmed this and most of them collected from both
parties. Consequently, it was not the victory of 'raw rice'
over 'cooked rice'. So what caused the massive rejection
of APC and consequently Governor Kayode Fayemi at the
polls in spite of the well noted above average performance
of his government? Why would the most educated
homogenous group in Yoruba land rebel elect Ayo Fayose,
someone supposedly 'under-educated' by their high
educational standards and reject Kayode Fayemi, a PhD
holder and incumbent for four years? What lessons are
there for APC for the coming elections?
1. PEOPLE DO NOT CARE HOW MUCH YOU KNOW UNTIL
THEY KNOW HOW MUCH YOU CARE
True, Governor Fayemi built roads and embarked on urban
renewal. His footprints were all over the State. However,
he was disconnected from the masses. There was a
general perception that his government was elitist and he
didn't do anything to correct that impression. He did not
have the common touch. He was building for the people
but the people did not feel any connection with him. His
style brought back a feeling of nostalgia about Fayose's
days to the people. Fayose could speak their language.
Fayose also made a mountain about living among the
people. In all the years he was away from office, he never
left Ekiti. He did not become a Lagos or Abuja politician
and the people noted it. That was why there was a chant
of 'Ghana Must Go' a few days to the election- referring to
where Governor Fayemi resided at a point in time. Did
Fayemi engage in town hall sessions across Ekiti
constantly through his tenure? If he did, were they
effective? Our politics in the South West still remains
rudimentary and that is why any touch of populism will
carry the day.
2. ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL AND WHEN YOU FORGET THIS
YOU GET PUNISHED FOR IT
Governor Fayemi practically lived and campaigned on
social media. He ran a very effective facebook and twitter
campaign. You can never fault him for taking advantage of
technology. However, twitter does not vote and most
facebook activists don't come out to vote. When Governor
Fayemi assembled bloggers from Lagos and brought them
to Ekiti to assess his performance, I knew he was
embarking on a fruitless exercise. The bloggers could only
influence the opinion of those who read them and how
many people actually read them in Isan, Ijan, Erio-Ekiti,
Iworoko and other less-city towns?
3. WHEN YOU REFUSE TO MAKE FRIENDS OF A FORMER
ADVERSARY, HE HURTS YOU MORE THAN EVER BEFORE
This election was APC's to lose. Actually, it should have
been a walkover for Governor Fayemi if they had kept
Fayose in their corner of the party. Fayose was a major
contributor to Fayemi's victory at the last polls. I
remember Fayemi published an advertorial thanking
Fayose for his efforts. When Fayose's father died, it was
widely acknowledged that he carried a signage with the
note 'Vote For Fayemi'. When Fayose celebrated his
birthday, the who's who in the then ACN were present and
they poured accolades on him. However, he claimed there
was an understanding that he will be given a senatorial
slot as compensation. This was never honored and he
decamped to the Labour Party where he was trounced. He
brought in this bruised ego into the political field. When a
man's ego suffers, other things bear the consequences.
What would it take to cede a slot to 'Oshoko' and let him
retire at the Senate? Even the Holy Writ asked us to
quickly make friends of our adversaries lest they put us in
gaol. APC is now in gaol, politically.
4. THE REJECTION OF THE OVER BEARING INFLUENCE OF
BOLA TINUBU
Many people that I know don't see Ayo Fayose as a
credible candidate yet they voted for him. They explained
that their vote for Fayose was actually a rejection of the
Bourdillon overlords. Many in Ekiti e have not forgotten
how Hon Oyetunde Ojo, a son-in-law of Bola Tinubu
became a member of the House of Representatives. This
same Hon Ojo is married to Tinubu's daughter who is now
the Iyaloja of Lagos. Tinubu's wife is also a Senator of the
Federal Republic. Fayose made some comedy out of this
when he announced that he will 'bring the government
back from Bourdillon to Ekiti'. Tinubu needs to watch it.
His drum is sounding too loud and this election was to
burst his bubble, just like Ondo and Anambra people just
did. His latest pronouncement to the effect that only three
kings in Yorubaland were reliable and supported the
aspirations of June 12 further alienated him from the
traditional rulership and essentially the people. Fayemi's
defeat was a collateral damage of sorts. Widely
acknowledged as a good and responsible leader, he caved
in due to the wrong perception of his godfather.
5. THE BANDWAGON EFFECT IN ONDO STATE
Due to the cultural affinity shared between Ondo and Ekiti
States, there would always be a meeting point. When
Governor Mimiko of Ondo State asserted himself and won
the Ondo State Gubernatorial election, I knew it was just a
matter of time before Ekiti followed suit. A very proud
group of people don't want to be vassals. And vassals
they think they are especially when there is the perception
that all key decisions are taken in Lagos. So it was
waiting to happen.
6. POLICIES THAT DO NOT CONNECT WITH THE PEOPLE
Such as the Teachers Needs Development Assessment
Tests, ban on okada riders without preferring an
alternative solution, removal or demolition of shops to
give way for urban renewal without immediate adequate
compensation, demolition of 'slums' without providing
alternative homes and similar policies. Once the livelihood
of people are threatened, they will find a way to revolt.
What happened in Ekiti was a revolt of peasants- a revolt
of sorts. Not even the cooperation of all the kings in Ekiti
land with APC could stop it. Policies must 'wear' a human
face. Opinions must be polled and listened to in some
cases. This is not to say that decisions should not be
carried out to the benefit of people, even if they are
difficult. However, the people must be engaged and the
benefits explained rigorously. Having policy somersaults
at the 11th hour on election eve opens you to opprobrium.
7. THE LACK OF CLEAR DISTINCTION BETWEEN APC AND
OTHER PARTIES
Before now, it was very popular to tout the achievements
of the 'poster boy' of APC, Babatunde Raji Fashola as
proof that the APC was different and will offer a better
platform for the people. That argument won over people in
droves. But no more. Ekiti people also saw the
achievements of Olusegun Mimiko during his first term
under the Labour Party and realized it was not just about
the party alone. Political parties as we know them in
Nigeria have no clear cut ideologies. People seem to be
wiser now and they are ready to consider candidates
irrespective of the platforms presenting them.
APC needs to re-strategize if the same fate will not befall
them in Oyo, Ogun and Edo States. I personally think
Ogbeni Aregbesola is on ground in Osun State and will be
able to retain the State for APC except a serious misstep
occurs before the election. Oyo, Ogun and Edo are three
swing states that may be lost to the opposition anytime
soon. A word is enough- if they are wise.
- Bayo Adeyinka